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Performance 2009 to 2023 (compound annual)

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Greenbriar Capital TSXV:GRB, www.greenbriarcapital.com

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4 years 8 months ago #123353 by 31Floors
31Floors replied the topic: GRB
Yeah, here’s the story that I was thinking about as I replied to lynnsa10’s post this am

blog.ucsusa.org/paula-garcia/prepas-agre...ible-for-puerto-rico

I do think Montalva will get contracted for 100mw (eventually) and I’m not thinking 145mw because i thought PREPA just asked for pricing; asking for pricing and increasing capacity by 45% seems to be a big stretch. If they do end up signing for 145mw then big bonus.

It’ll be a long frustrating and maybe sometimes nervous ride to get from here to an operating Montalva, IMO.

You’ll see a lot of selling from tired frustrated owners along the way! If you have the PATIENCE I think you’ll be fine, at these prices.

And Sage should help a lot and Jeff still isn’t collecting a salary and runs a tight ship.

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4 years 8 months ago #123352 by Hoss
Hoss replied the topic: GRB
alex, I can only tell you what the chart is telling me. No charting is perfect, but I find ichimoku clouds and candle sticks about the best methods out there. I am not the best expert on ichimoku either but a number of the indicators it provides has served me well in the past. If the chart gets any better will make another post.

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4 years 8 months ago #123351 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: GRB
Hoss, you do not sound so positive. For sure we under a dark cloud

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4 years 8 months ago #123350 by Hoss
Hoss replied the topic: GRB
This is a weekly chart and has been bearish since December 2018. I sold my trading position in November, thinking it would drop below the cloud with year end weakness and did. The stock has been in a downtrend since.

Some indicators are becoming quite over sold, such as CCI. For bottom fishing some bids below market does make sense, but there is no good indication of a bottom yet. The pink cloud is quite thick indicating the down trend has good momentum. For short term, using a daily chart, the support is at 60 cents and resistance at 79 cents. Take note that the stock has been trading low volume, so some volume and movement could effect the chart quickly.

It is too early for myself to bid, but I don't always have perfect timing either.

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4 years 8 months ago #123349 by 31Floors
31Floors replied the topic: GRB
Accusation that oil co conspired with corrupt PREPA officials to sell cheap high polluting garbage oil to PREPA while charging for high grade oil resulting in overcharging billions ===> partially responsible for PREPA $9B in debt and in bankruptcy protection.

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4 years 8 months ago #123348 by JunglistGuy
JunglistGuy replied the topic: GRB
lynsa, what was the corruption with Oil?

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4 years 8 months ago #123347 by lynnsa10
lynnsa10 replied the topic: GRB
Thanks 31, I don't think many here look at SH. I do now and then and GRB thread fairly negative there, probably where some selling has come from?? And reflects the dismal stock price.

I agree and do not count on much RB royalty for 2019. Would be good to see a start though

I am ok with the split timing because us shareholders will have an equal share in each and probably more value as two separate companies. New investors can place their bets on solar or go the other way and bet on Sage and smart glass. The timing of the share split will likely occur on or after Montavala gets a done deal. That would make the most sense.

I think most of us here were not counting much from RB, but the near term focus more Montavla. However, politics has slowed that down and is hard to project timing.

Politically the island needs an announcement on Montavla, it is what the people want
and will give the new governor and PREPA at least 1 browny point. I think they will end up doing solar with or without PREPA. Now that the corruption is exposed, oil has to go. The people will never trust PREPA with oil, maybe why they announced NG?

The other positive, PREPA has asked for a larger output at Montavla, I see that as positive

www.npr.org/2019/07/05/738164642/puerto-...ewable-energy-future
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4 years 8 months ago #123344 by 31Floors
31Floors replied the topic: GRB
I’ll summarize for you. Do not count on any RB royalties until you see them in sedar. Forecast jack squat for the balance of 2019. If I’m wrong I’m off by I’d guess ... $10,000 bucks.

If I’m a Director I’d probably want some of that $1.7m to reduce some of my $2m in loans outstanding that have been o/S for the last 5 years call park.

Jeff ‘s 50% Sage if he can get the DOD deal done will be a CASH COW. If not it will still be glorious If what we’ve been told about Sage and Anderson AFB is true. I think it is. Waiting for the enviro reports at the end of Aug and rhen there’s a public input process.

I think Montalva was spun out too soon! It would have made much more sense if the balance of the co was RB that at one time appeared to have the potential of making this co a 20 bagger. Key word: appeared. If they had been able to get it working try 30 bagger. Or nothing If it didn’t work.

By the way and not to brag but for the record I was purposely throwing shade and trying to help the cause for months to reduce expectations to 10 to 15k transactions a mo. Exit 2019, And not 60,000 /$14m that he maintained in his webcast and in a subsequent NR.

I’m no expert in solar that’s for darned sure. This maybe near max pessimism insofar as PREPA is concerned, but I doubt that.

The PREPA financial restructuring proposal had PREPA (this means the citizens) paying $23B back to the bond holders from now to 2067?? to pay back $9b owed. Even if you aren’t on the grid you’d be taxed per one article I read. So true microgrid owners and backers would be screaming from their solar panels!

But they can’t let PREPA go under and the US govt has a huge role, you can’t have no utility!

Maybe they put in guarantees and back stop somewhere, some how. Who knows.

The max news cycle pessimism and the activities in the background do not necessarily go hand in hand.

Hopefully things in the background are progressing but man it’s an extremely complex situation there. While I don’t think PREPA is at max negative news I perhaps Montalva is and that’s the opportunity in GRB. That s what the challenge for investors is imo.

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4 years 8 months ago #123343 by 31Floors
31Floors replied the topic: GRB ' sells RealBloc/ no free pass
Lots of guys here not reading my SH posts obviously

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4 years 8 months ago #123342 by DearJohn
DearJohn replied the topic: GRB ' sells RealBloc/ no free pass
Here is the news link on the governor folding to the peoples demand, that was about 2 weeks ago

www.cnn.com/2019/07/25/us/puerto-rico-cr...-thursday/index.html

I am still holding, was thinking of averaging down too. This is a solid long term play

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4 years 8 months ago #123341 by RonS
RonS replied the topic: GRB ' sells RealBloc/ no free pass
I noticed a pickup in activity here so thought I would post the market book. Bids are still very thin and looks like we could drop further. I am waiting for some better indication of a bottom or see if we become more oversold to suggest buying. Nothing wrong with bids below market right now

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4 years 8 months ago #123340 by alexgreat
alexgreat replied the topic: GRB ' sells RealBloc/ no free pass
Another point to consider. The $10 or $16M revenue projection whatever you go by is revenue, not profit. The royalty goes right to the bottom line with no expense so is much more like a profit number than revenue. Only in time will we know how this works out. I am neutral on the realbloc sale. Might be better with a royalty, maybe better if it was not sold? 50/50

I bought for the Montavla project and although there is a lot of political BS involved, the island is pretty much in revolution and a lot of change will come. The people demand it. The governor was forced to step down, the people are taking to the streets to make change. Puerto Rico will end up mostly wind and solar, it is their own natural resource that they have more of than maybe any other US state. Oil will be dead, it is only the corruption that has kept that going.

Is Hoss into this stock, wonder what the cloud chart is telling him

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