North American economy in retreat

No guesses at the jobs number last week and it was a shocker

The US economy created far fewer jobs than expected last month and wages also rose less than forecast.

Some 75,000 jobs were created in May rather than the 185,000 expected by analysts, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

The dollar dropped as markets assumed that the slower-than-expected job growth meant a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve was more likely.

But the US unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, its lowest level for 50 years.

The US dollar fell more than 0.4% against the pound, the euro and the yen after the jobs figures were published.

Good update on bond markets and interest rates

On Pace for $1.5 trillion in new U.S. debt. Could be pressure for higher corporate rates.
Has Fed manipulation put risk of unwind in markets?
Never seen this in history before, can't seem to ease much QE
3.2% seemed to be ceiling for economy
Developed world did not cleaned up balance sheet in last down turn, but increased it

Obvious I did not look

U.S. Added 263,000 Jobs in April; Unemployment Rate at 3.6%

The economy produced another strong month of growth, and the jobless rate fell to the lowest level of the recovery.

www.nytimes.com/2019/05/03/business/econ...bs-report-april.html

I have not looked at the cards yet, but will go low 155k

seems we more often get surprises to the upside so I will guess 245k

US jobs number today, consensus is 181k I go with 220k

PMI data showed the German manufacturing sector contracting for the fourth month in a row, pushing investors into the safety of eurozone government bonds. While activity in Germany's services sector rose to a seven-month high in April, the focus surrounded the 44.5 reading for the manufacturing sector, well below the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading comes a day after Germany slashed its 2019 growth forecast to 0.5%

GB, you get the prize, pretty close, came in at 196k
www.nytimes.com/2019/04/05/business/jobs...mployment-march.html

I will be the doom and gloom guy with 80,000. Trade problems, retail layoffs

Guys, don't forget about the masters of economic data. The Fed does not like to see the inverted yield curve that a bad number will cause or add to it. Don't forget about seasonal adjustments and birth/death rate that they can use to give a number over 200k. So I guess 210,000

I agree about more weakness. I will go with 120k

Any guesses on the jobs 3 today, consensus is 175k. I still think there is more weakness than most expect, will go with 145k