North American economy in retreat

Kay Daniel Neufeld, managing economist at the CEBR thinktank, is relieved that America avoided an abrupt slowdown in the last quarter.

However, he also expects growth will be slower in 2019 - averaging 2.3% (again, below that 3% target).

Neufeld writes:

Contrary to most other large economies, the US has bucked the trend and recorded faster GDP growth in 2018 than in the previous year. The weak retail sales recorded for December alarmed analysts fearing an abrupt slowdown to the US expansion in the final quarter of last year, but today’s stronger than expected GDP data suggest the December figures might have been a blip.

Nevertheless, there is little room for complacency. With the world economy slowing and the US –China trade conflict merely on hold, there are plenty of pitfalls to avoid if the US wants to achieve another stellar performance in 2019.”

www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/f...growth-business-live

Retail sales not looking good

The Commerce Department said retail sales tumbled by 1.2 percent in December after inching up by a revised 0.1 percent in November.

Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2 percent, matching the uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a jump in auto sales, retail sales plunged by an even steeper 1.8 percent in December after coming in unchanged in November. Ex-auto sales had been expected to edge up by 0.1 percent.

Adding to the negative sentiment, a report from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased in the week ended February 9th.

Good job numbers today, beat expectations 312,000
www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/nonfarm-payrolls-december-2018.html

I think it actually comes out at 8AM. Anyway a miss 155,000, earnings rose 0.2% so still some inflation pressure.

I guess markets like it because might keep the Fed holding back on rates?

jobs number out soon, expected to be 200,000

wow bid .32 and ask all the way up at .38

Pretty strong job numbers and more inflation pressure

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 250,000 for October, well ahead of Refinitiv estimates of 190,000.

Average hourly earnings increased by 5 cents an hour for the month and 83 cents year-over-year, representing a 3.1 percent gain, the best pace since 2009.

The prediction - likely rebounded in October, with nonfarm payrolls probably increasing by 193,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at a 49-year low of 3.7%. Wages are further expected to break through the psychologically important 3% annual growth ceiling that's held firm for nearly a decade.

Inflation coming

Jobs numbers not as good this month, but wage growth still good

September Nonfarm payrolls rose just 134,000, well below estimates of 185,000 and the worst performance since last September, when a labor strike weighed on the numbers.
The closely watched average hourly earnings component showed a 2.8 percent year-over-year increase, in line with Wall Street estimates.

Economy adds more jobs than expected in August, and wage growth hits post-recession high
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 201,000 in August. Economists surveyed by Reuters expected a 191,000 increase.
Average hourly earnings jumped by 2.9 percent, above the 2.7 percent increase expected.
The unemployment rate held near a generational low of 3.9 percent.

The US economy added 157,000 jobs in July - 33,000 fewer than expected and well below the 248,000 created in June.

Economists had forecast that the number of jobs created would be close to 190,000 for the month.

The unemployment rate fell from 4.0% to 3.9% in July, the US Department of Labor said, near to the 18-year low it reached in May.

Previous job gain estimates for May and June were revised upwardly, to 268,000 and 248,000 respectively.

The job figures follow data last week that showed the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 4.1% in the second quarter of the year.

Steady growth
The Department of Labor figures also showed average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% in July to $27.05, meaning they were up 2.7% from the same month last year.

We too negative, lol

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said. Data for March and April was revised to show the economy creating 15,000 more jobs than previously reported. Economists blamed bad weather for the slowdown in job growth over those two months.