North American economy in retreat

Election is over, stock market at new highs, I see a weak number 138,000

I bet on 205,000, all the economic numbers have been more robust lately so perhaps this trend will stay intact for the end of the year.

I will go with 168,000. A weaker number because of the huge padding last month can't continue with the birth death rate model, but need it high enough to keep rate hike on track

Jobs report out Friday, the median forecast is 180,000. Any hazard to guess for this month.

I decided to run a contest - The closest guesstimate to the reported number gets a 6 month trial to the newsletter. Have not figured out a price for current subscribers - any suggestions welcome

Interesting times

Steven Terner Mnuchin, a financier with deep roots on Wall Street and in Hollywood but no government experience, is expected to be named Donald J. Trump’s Treasury secretary as soon as Wednesday, people close to the transition say.

Mr. Mnuchin, 53, was the national finance chairman for Mr. Trump’s campaign. He began his career at Goldman Sachs, where he became a partner, before creating his own hedge fund, moving to the West Coast and entering the first rank of movie financiers by bankrolling hits like the “X-Men” franchise and “Avatar.”

www.nytimes.com/2016/11/29/us/politics/s...-secretary.html?_r=0

Treasury Bonds down again today, on the verge of breaking the support levels I am watching

They had to pad the number with a whopping 197,000 from the birth death rate magic model, without that would have been -36,000 job losses

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

No guesstimates this month. Jobs came in at 161K below 175k expected

I was a bit too negative, but the market was not set up for a real weak jobs # so there must be some underlying financial stress.

Bonds went up a bit on the jobs news but are back down

Birth death rate was -57,000, the first negative number since January. Seems like they wanted a weak number out there?

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

Thanks Ron, Damm I was thinking of going a bit lower

lynnsa you had the right theme and closest to the actual at 156,000

finance.yahoo.com/news/us-payrolls-repor...-2016-114742356.html

I am going to check the birth death rate number