North American economy in retreat

I will guess -180k

any guesses at the job numbers for March, out tomorrow. Estimates all over. I think it goes by about mid March so not full impact yet. I am going with -500,000 I woner if government will just pencil in a bad number to put it in the history books, like -10 million

This is a good read. Canada will be crucified with our weak leadership and a non confidence vote is around the corner

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/08/...irus-quake-reshapes/

The worlds geopolitical order will be unrecognisable once Covid-19 has done its worst. Long-standing regimes will be badly compromised. Political systems that have never fully recovered from the Lehman crisis will suffer a second body blow.

Those Western democratic governments that have been most complacent or incompetent will be torn to shreds by unforgiving electorates. Social media will see to that.

Covid-19 is turning into a strategic contest between the social control model of Chinas Communist Party and the unruly, free-spirited pluralism of the West. How that comparison plays out will shape the global order in the 21st Century.

In this country, Brexit scarcely matters right now. Decimal points of GDP are irrelevant. Boris Johnson will be judged on whether or not his administration allows avoidable decimation of the elderly -- and the not so elderly -- and whether the National Health Service buckles in catastrophic institutional failure.

Korea has six times as many intensive care (ICU) beds per capita, and Germany four times as many. What we know so far from Lombardy is that 13 percent of infected patients require ICU treatment, typically for two to three weeks.

The outbreak is already overwhelming the system in Italys best equipped region. ICU patients are being sent to Tuscany because beds have run out.

The Italian society of anesthesia and critical care says it may be necessary to reserve "very scarce resources" to patients with a "higher chance of survival and more years of life to come." The unthinkable is happening.

"Italy should be a warning to everybody, everywhere," says Professor Massimo Galli, head of infectious diseases at the Luigi Sacco hospital in Milan.

He is scathing about those still playing down the threat. "It was never anything like flu. People uttering such things are sowing confusion among those who wish to be confused," he said.

If the British government can buy vital weeks to "flatten the peak" and stretch the epidemic into the less contagious summer (we hope), it might have a chance of preventing a national disgrace -- starting with a shortage of respirators, one variable explaining why reported mortality rates in Wuhan are 5.8 percent, 2 percent in Beijing, and 1 percent in Shanghai, but rising everywhere as slow deaths come in.

GB, great call, number came in at 225k

www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/business/january-jobs-report.html

Hourly earnings up 3.1% on the year so moving the right way

My guess is always way off, so I go 168k

US job numbers today 160k expected. Everything seems to be going up, so maybe 210k for todays number

Debt, debt and more debt, how high can the US go

According to the latest figures from the Treasury Department, the U.S. fiscal deficit exceeded $1T in 2019, marking the first time it has passed that level in a calendar year since 2012. The future is not looking better. For the fiscal year, which began in October, the shortfall is already at $356.6B, an 11.7% increase from a year ago.

ah ha, when we guess higher, it is lower

Points

December’s payroll and wage growth missed expectations.
The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by just 145,000 while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.5%.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for job growth of 160,000. The jobless rate met expectations for staying at a 50-year low.
A more encompassing jobs rate that includes discouraged and underemployed workers fell to 6.7%, the lowest it’s ever been in records going back to 1994.

I guess 195k

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its latest employment report Friday at 8:30 am ET. Economists expect the report to show that 164,000 new jobs were added in December, according to a poll by Refinitiv.

Another slap on the wrist and off the banksters go to the next fraud

By Jonathan Stempel
Reuters
Tuesday, December 17, 2019

NEW YORK -- Thirteen prominent banks and financial services companies agreed to pay $337 million to resolve claims by investors that they conspired to rig prices of bonds issued by mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for a decade.

The preliminary settlements filed late Monday night in federal court in Manhattan require a judge's approval, and would conclude private nationwide antitrust litigation brought against 16 defendants, with settlements totaling $386.5 million.

www.reuters.com/article/us-fannie-mae-fr...in-u-s-idUSKBN1YL1RK

One way to help the economy is wipe out student debt. We could really use this in Canada too. Two of my siblings are still struggling with this

n ancient Babylon, a newly enthroned king would declare a jubilee, wiping out the population’s debts. In modern America, a faint echo of that idea -- call it jubilee-lite -- is catching on.

Support for write-offs has been driven by Democratic presidential candidates. Elizabeth Warren says she’d cancel most of the $1.6 trillion in U.S. student loans. Bernie Sanders would go further -– erasing the whole lot, as well as $81 billion in medical debt.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-...topic-now-in-america

Wow strong report

The US added 266,000 new jobs in November boosted by the return to work of striking auto workers.

Economists had expected job growth to 187,000 in November, up from 128,000 in October and boosted by the return to work of 48,000 GM workers following a 40-day strike.

Manufacturing employment rose by 54,000 in November, following a decline of 43,000 in the prior month. Healthcare added 45,000 jobs.

www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/d...ariffs-business-live