North American economy in retreat

Job numbers out and weaker than expected. Next month could start to reflect end of wage/job subsidy

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 661,000 in September, lower than the 800,000 Dow Jones estimate.
The unemployment rate was 7.9%, better than the 8.2% estimate.
This is the final jobs report before the November election.

www.cnbc.com/2020/10/02/jobs-report-september-2020.html

Their total assets are of €1.3t and equity of €62b, accordingly, the equity is 4.7% of their total assets. Consequently, loan losses of 5% would wipe out their capital, but strategists have been discussing that the coming loan losses of Deutsche bank could top 25%. So, adding the gross derivatives exposure of $50t, a 0.1% loss would be enough to bankrupt Deutsche Bank.

From 1971 the US$ has lost 98% of it's value.. WOW!!!!!!!

Interesting video on current banking crisis

Jobs numbers out today
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 1.37 million in August vs. Dow Jones estimates of 1.32 million.
The unemployment dropped to 8.4% from 10.2% in July and well below expectations of 9.8%.
Government hiring led the way, with gains also coming in retail and education and health services.

But here is the reality chart

very good video

Lots of news that could move markets this week

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin testify before Congress on June 30 in what's expected to be a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. The Fed's John Williams and Charles Evans also have speeches on the calendar and FOMC minutes are due out on July 1. On the economic front, reports on factory orders, trade balance, and manufacturing PMI will all pour in before the June jobs report steals the show on July 2. Economists project a gain of 3M jobs during the month to take the unemployment rate to 12.2% from 13.3%.

Apple really needs the help

The central bank has purchased the bonds of 794 different companies, with the paper of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Verizon (VZ), AT&T (NYSE:T), and the U.S. divisions of Toyota (NYSE:TM), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), and Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF) making up 10% of the amount spent. The plan is to buy $250B of debt already issued, and $500B in newly issued bonds. Fed officials have said the goal of the buying is to maintain liquidity in the market for corporate debt, so that issuers are able to access capital despite the economic downturn created by the COVID-19 pandemic.

I wonder how much of the sales rebound is from one time government handout?

At May 6 was reported that the IRS sent 159 million stimulus checks

www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance...tions-answers-2020-4

Have you heard, big mistake in job numbers, they were much worse

Unfortunately, after delving into the footnotes of the numbers, it now looks like the jobs report has been inaccurate for the last two months. BLS has admitted that government household survey takers mistakenly counted about 4.9 million people as employed, although they were unemployed.

Had the mistake been corrected, the unemployment rate would have risen to 16.1% in May. The corrected April figure would have been more than 19.5%—rather than 14.7%.

www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/06/0...oyment/#4c0b250f60d3

No guesses this month, here is the numbers. Surprise

The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 13.3 percent in May, down from a record high in April, indicating the nation's economy is recovering faster than expected from the coronavirus lockdown.

The Labor Department said in its Friday report that employers added a stunning 2.5 million jobs in May -- the biggest increase on record. The economy shed a combined 22.1 million jobs in April and March.

Gambler, you were close

Nonfarm payrolls in March fell by 701,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.
The numbers just begin to capture the beginning of the job market collapse brought up by efforts to contain the coronavirus.

This was the first decline in payroll growth since September 2010.