RSUV1583May62009Oil

 

Resource Stock Update - V15 #8.3 - Markets, Oil, CMT, BUK, STP, KCL, CLL, HOC, WZR, LFD   May. 6, 2009

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The bear market rally has continued with renewed strength this week, but is approaching major
resistance areas that I was expecting to see and where I also expect the rally to exhaust itself -
we are also approaching the slower summer season.

                                             S&P 500 chart

The Toronto index is also near resistance, approaching 10,000

Oil is at $56 today, up from $54 and at near term resistance and oil stocks have been strong with better oil prices and a rally in the stock market.

                                                         Oil chart

I think there is more opportunity in Nat Gas, so with the rally and good prices on oil stocks, I am
going to sell and lighten up on these. We have already sold pretty much all of our uranium stocks. I
want to focus mainly on Nat Gas (Compton, Bridge, Talisman, Ultra Petroleum) and alternate wind
energy (Vesta, Western Wind and soon AmMex Gold). There is still opportunity with oil stocks, and we
will be selective, but also adding some more wind and Nat Gas stocks.

 

Compton Petroleum   TSX:CMT  NY:CMZ          Recent Price C$1.09
Entry Price  $0.62                                   Opinion - take profits

I last mentioned CMT when it was in the $0.90s to take profits at $1.00 or higher but it did not get
there. It is now, so I would sell 1/2 of the position. We will keep the rest long term, because Nat
Gas prices have to go back up a lot higher from the current $3.50 area


Tel: (403) 237-9400

http://www.comptonpetroleum.com

http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=CMT&table=LIST


Southern Pacific   TSXV:STP                     Recent Price C$0.45
Entry Price  $2.02                                          Opinion - sell at $0.45

We got STP as a result of a merger with Rochester and STP like many of the oil sand stocks has seen
a big recovery in price. It is now up 300% from its $0.11 price at the beginning of the year and is
now approaching a resistance area on the chart, so I will sell the entire position.


Connacher  TSXV:CLL                                 Recent Price C$1.33
Entry Price $0.60                                   Opinion - sell over $1.50

I am waiting to see this stock at least get to $1.50 to sell

I will also consider selling the few penny junior oils we have left, if I see a move up in their
price, like Texalta, Champlain, Greencastle and California Oil&Gas

http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=CLL&table=LIST

 

Potash One   TSX:KCL                                        Recent Price $2.04
Entry Price $2.08                                                            Opinion - hold

The last couple updates I have suggested buying the stock, now finally in the last couple days it
broke through the $1.85 resistance area and we should now see a move up to $3.00

http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=KCL&table=LIST


Bridge Resources  TSXV:BUK                       Recent Price - C$0.32
Entry Price $0.31                                                      Opinion - buy

BUK's Nat Gas well in the North Sea is doing great. In the past week or so there has been several
large block trades or crosses going through. The technicals look real good on the chart, pointing to a breakout upward in price at any time,
so I see it as a good buy and with these crosses happening,
something positive could be brewing.

Technicals

The stock has been trading between narrow Bolinger Bands, often seen before a move and an expansion in the bands. The stock is over the 30 day and 60 day moving average and the 30 day has now crossed the 60 day, all positive momentum. Divergence has been positive for months and MACD heading up. Short term the Fast Stochastic has turned up but the slow Stochasti is lagging which means that there is room to theupside short term until both near 100

http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=BUK&table=LIST

 


Westernzagros Resources    TSX:WZR             Recent Price $0.92
Entry Price $0.77                        Opinion - sell and buy LFD

We bought into the stock for potential of a big discovery on a well drilled on their exploration
project area in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company has lots of cash and the well looked like
it would be successful but failed on technical completion problems of high pressure.

The stock tanked when this problem was announced and we could not get out at a decent price. It has
recovered with the market and other oil stocks, so I am going to sell.

It will be many months before they drill another well here and I think we will have a chance to buy
back cheaper at a later date.

I think there will be a bigger bang for the buck in Longford - LFD, see below


http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=WZR&table=LIST


Website - http://www.westernzagros.com

 

While I am on the topic of Kurdistan in Iraq, probably the strongest oil stock going is one listed
in London, called  Heritage Oil. There is about 250 million shares out, but it is also listed and
trades some on Toronto under symbol HOC and has recently moved to $10 from $3.00 so now has a market cap of $2.5 billion.  All this is on one oil well drilled, but it looks like a monster.

The well has a showing of 1,100 meters of oil, I have never seen something so big, but then again we have never seen much on drill results out of the middle east. The rumor going about is that this
could be the biggest oil discovery in many years, billions of barrels.

In fact more news came out today, that confirms a multi billion barrel discovery, here is highlights
from the news today

# Miran West structure estimated oil in place of between 2.3 billion to 4.2 billion barrels;

# Recovery factor expected to be between 50 per cent to 70 per cent due to the highly fractured
nature of the reservoirs;

# From the pressure data recorded during testing management estimates flow rates of between 10,000
to 15,000 barrels of oil per day per well;

# Miran West-1 well has an estimated gross oil-bearing interval of 710 metres;

# Oil produced during testing was medium gravity (approximately 27 degree API), with low sulphur, a
low gas-oil ratio and with no water;


http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=HOC&table=LIST


Now the best part

The reason I have been saying to hold on to  and buy

Lonford Energy  TSXV:LFD                      Recent Price C$0.45
Entry Price $0.15                                         Opinion - hold/buy

The rumor on Longford, is there property acquisition is adjacent or in the same area as Heritage
Oil. You see the management of Longford, Westernzagros and another junior called Vast Exploration
Inc. (TSXV:VST), are all connected and related to each other in what is becoming a huge oil
discovery area play in Kurdistan.

VST's  Qara Dagh block is directly adjacent to Heritage's Miran block, which is directly to the
north and northwest of the block.

If you check VST, they have many of the same management as Longford. I think the best play on this
will be Longford, because of a better and tighter share structure and stronger ownership of the
stock.

If the rumor is true and Longford announces an acquisition in this area, the stock could quickly
soar over $1.00

If you still do not own any Longford I would be buying a position, other wise continue to hold the
stock.

http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=LFD&table=LIST


(c) Copyright 2009, Struther's Resource Stock Report


All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus
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