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Resource Stock Update - V14 #8.2 - Markets, NKE, HXD, GEA - July, 15, 2008
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Markets
We may be near a temporary bottom in this on going bear market. The S&P 500 has basically been falling for six straight weeks and with a reversal from a new low today the chart might be forming a hammer and an up day tomorrow might form a morning doji star. We will see - but a strong reversal pattern.
News has been very negative, barometers like the VIX (volatility index) went over 30 today, in a range where we see bottoms. Volume on the Spyder (S&P 500) has been high. Gold has been moving up strong, with the next challenge on the chart being the old high over $1,000. But gold was up $13 or $14 this morning and then reversed and gave back all of those gains and some more as of this writing around 1PM.
Crude oil has also retreated again from the $145 area and is down over $6 today.
The senior and mid size gold producers have been moving up with gold and were up again this morning, but are selling off this afternoon, after 3 days of big gains that seen them up 10% to 15%
The HUI (Gold Bugs Index) is up against it's next resistance around 470/480. It needs to go through this and past 520 for the gold stocks to confirm a move in gold back over $1,000, but it looks like it is retreating.
All these things point to a possible short term bottom in this latest bear move for the major market indexes. It may also be a short term top for oil and possibly gold, although I expect gold has the best chance of continuing higher in the next few weeks.
This reversal or bottom may only last a few days or a week, we will know better by what the charts say over the next couple days.
Nike NY:NKE Recent Price $57.25 Entry Price - sold short at $68 Opinion - Close Put
Regardless, I think it is a good time to close the Put option on Nike, the July $65 Put is around $8.00 for gain of 200%. There is not much time left and the stock has performed surprisingly well in this poor market. It tested resistance in the $53 to $55 area and has bounced back up today
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=NKE&table=LIST
Horizon BetaPro TSX Bear Plus TSX:HXD Recent Price $19.70 Entry Price $21 Opinion - sell
I am also going to use this point in the market to sell or close out one of our other hedges, the TSX Bear plus - HXD. We did take part profits in April at $25 so by selling the rest today we will have a small profit. My idea is to re-establish the position at a lower price.
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=HXD&table=LIST
Gold Eagle TSX:GEA Recent Price $10:45 Entry Price $4.75 Opinion - take part profits
A couple weeks back I mentioned to take part profits in GEA into strength over $9.25 and speculated the stock may go to around $10 if it's current uptrend pattern continues. The stock is up $0.45 today, so a good idea to take part profits. Be sure to hold some for the long term
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=GEA&table=LIST
(c) Copyright 2008, Struther's Resource Stock Report
All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of this publication has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author's control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Because of the ever-changing nature of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly encourages the reader to communicate directly with the company and/or with their personal investment advisor to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial advisor & is not acting as such in this publication. Struther's Resource Stock Report is not a registered financial advisory. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.
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