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Resource Stock Update - V13 #19.2, - Markets, PZG, MSM, SNS, PIK, FR, OK, NMB, ELR, ARU - Dec., 2, 2007
PO Box 1020 Owen Sound, Ontario, Canada N4K 6H6 resource@bmts.com Yearly subscription $199 cdn/year or US$219
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I have received some emails from some of you on various stocks, but it is really the market environment that is the main problem
While we have seen several corrections in this commodity bull market in the past 5 years and quite often there can be weakness in December with tax loss selling, this current correction is kind of bizarre and has been the most anguishing of all. But a correction is really all it is.
What is quite frustrating is seeing gold and oil roar up to strong new highs and most of the related stocks don't go up with it and what is worse they have actually gone down and some quite considerable. Many did not follow gold and oil higher, but have followed them lower on the correction, although the new trading range for gold and oil is still a lot higher. Many of you may see it with a few stocks you hold, but this is very broad based. On Wednesday for example 5 stocks on the TSX hit new highs while 100 hit new lows.
All I can say is to stay tough and be patient. It makes no sense to sell now at what is a bottom or very close to one. Markets occasionally become disconnected with fundamentals and move to extremes and this is what we have now, exaggerated by tax loss selling. The good news is we have seen the worse or close to it and some others that have long successful track records agree.
"We think there are some great opportunities in gold," says Evy Hambro, managing director at Blackrock. "The fundamentals have never been better. While demand is incredible, there is continued falling productivity, with little reinvestment in capacity and little exploration success, and supply from the central banks is tight because for the second year in a row, they have sold less gold than they are allowed to. We're focusing on investing in companies where there is growth in exploration and avoiding large historical producers with higher costs as many of their mines are in last phase with higher operating costs and severe declines in grade."
As you can see Hambro is also quite focused on companies focused on exploration where growth is expected, like many stocks in our portfolio, like PZG, SNS, AGQ, MSM, PIK, OK, NMB, ER, ELR, PTM, XRC, GEA to name a handful.
I have seen many tax loss selling seasons and they seem to peak and start dwindling off around December 5th to 10th, so this week should see the brunt of tax loss selling end, and a bottom made in numerous stocks.
Investors all also panicking in some cases when they hit certain lows and bail out knocking prices down further.
However, what this causes is powerful rallies from these lows in late December, January and February. As selling pressure subsides many stocks pop up from these over sold positions. With New Year optimism and the fact that many mining juniors hold their exploration news to after the holidays into January we normally see good market rallies in January - February with the junior explorers. This year is no different and in fact could be much more explosive to the upside as markets come back in line with fundamentals, meaning much higher metal and energy prices.
I am going to comment on a few stocks that some of you have emailed about and ones that are the most over sold and good buys.
Paramount Gold/Silver, TSX/AMEX: PZG Recent Price - C$1.81 Entry Price $1.00 Opinion - strong buy
Somebody hit the panic button on Friday and dumped their stock, it was pretty indiscretional and strong selling. Whenever we see this stock get down to $2.00 and especially below, it is an awesome buy.
The same thing happened last December, one day it dropped to $1.82 and bounced from there, rallying to a high of $3.20 by March.
I spoke to management and there is lots of drill news in the pipeline and I did hear they have some very good results coming from their first exploration round on the huge Andrea concession. We could see news here in the next week or two.
Paramount is going prove up 100 million ounces silver or so and 200 million or so and maybe much more, eventually this stock will go way higher, no matter what the price of silver or gold is. I seen it happen dozens of times before and this stock will be no different, what we don't know is the exact time frame and path to these much higher prices.
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=PZG&table=LIST
Mexican Silver Mines TSXV:MSM Recent Price C$0.60 Entry Price $0.95 Opinion - buy
MSM has been sliding in the past month and hit new all time lows for the stock last week. It has not been trading long and does not have a lot of chart history and is the only reason I rated it a 'buy' instead of 'strong buy'.
MSM completed a letter of intent (LOI) to acquire a 100% interest in the Voladora mine located in the municipality of Lampazos, Nuevo Leon, northeastern Mexico. The Voladora mine, which covers an area of 272 hectares, is situated two kilometres to the northwest of Mexican Silver's La Iguana mine.
Just the sign of the times, good news, but the market didn't care and still drove the stock down
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=MSM&table=LIST
SNS Silver Corp. TSXV:SNS Recent Price $1.03 Entry Price $1.60 Opinion - buy on weakness
SNS has been stuck in a trading range between $0.90 and $1.35 for several months now and despite good drill news, has not been able to move higher. It is getting close to the bottom of its range, so a drop near $0.90 would be a buying opportunity
SNS completed its 2007 phase 1 surface exploration drill program, with a total of 36 NQ core holes and more than 41,000 feet of drilling. We should see more of these results and the drills will now go under ground and I expect will be successful and prove up a significant block of silver resources
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=SNS&table=LIST
Peak Gold, TSXV:PIK Recent Price C$0.45 Entry Price $0.72 Opinion - strong buy, average down
They just closed a $110 million financing at $0.75 while the stock was trading at $0.50. Disappointment on no acquisitions at this point in time is probably the reason for the lack of interest, but this management team will grow this into quite a company, the stock is an excellent buy at these prices.
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=PIK&table=LIST
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I get very few questions if stocks are going higher, but
Not all of our stocks are going down and some are going up and quite a lot. We have also seen 10 of our picks bought out for high prices this year, a new record for take overs on our list.
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First Majestic - FR did hit $5.00 in November, up from our $3.65 buy price and is still at $4.20, continue to hold
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=FR&table=LIST
Exeter - XRC has climbed steady in the past few months from around $2.50 to a high of $5.00 last week, you can continue to hold, but we are up 700% now from our $0.64 buy level and it would not hurt to take part profits to buy some bargains
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=XRC&table=LIST
Orko Silver - OK has run from our $1.22 buy level to a high of $2.10 in November, continue to hold
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=OK&table=LIST
Aurelian Resources TSXV:ARU Recent Price C$7.55 Entry Price $5.81 Opinion - hold, buy below $7.00
The stock hit a new high of 10.25 in November but has since come back down hard even though drill results continue excellent for the Fruta Del Norte (FDN) deposit at the Condor project, in Ecuador. The results are for step-out holes designed to test the southern and northern extensions of FDN, as well as infill holes in the central high-grade part of the system, on 50-metre-spaced sections.
The results from the infill holes include 216.6 metres grading 12.85 grams per tonne of gold and 10.5 g/t of silver in CP-07-152. The deposit is now up to almost 14 million ozs gold.
Our speculative Ecuadar plays, DHANOA MINERALS - DHNA and Ormonte - ORR have gotton slaughtered by the Ecuador political situation, while ARU is just to big to ignore it is still receiving a very low valuation
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=ARU&table=LIST
Eastern Platinum - ELR has more than a double this year and at $2.72 is still near Novembers high of $2.90, continue to hold.
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=ELR&table=LIST
Norambec - NMB did jump to $0.65 in November on great drill results but has drifted back in the weak market, continue to hold and buy below $0.45
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=NMB&table=LIST
Imagine how these will do in a good market and in the New Year.
(c) Copyright 2007, Struther's Resource Stock Report
All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of this publication has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author's control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Because of the ever-changing nature of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly encourages the reader to communicate directly with the company and/or with their personal investment advisor to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial advisor & is not acting as such in this publication. Struther's Resource Stock Report is not a registered financial advisory. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.
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