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Resource Stock Update - V14 #5.0 Potash - May, 21, 2008
PO Box 1020 Owen Sound, Ontario, Canada N4K 6H6
resource@bmts.com Yearly subscription $199 cdn/year or US$209
Numerous times in the past few years I have talked about or mentioned the challenges ahead with an exploding world population and whether there will be ample food supplies and certainly food will never be as cheap as we have become accustomed to.
From my August 2007 Market Update
"It was 1776 before the world population reached 1 billion people and it was not until 1945 when the baby boom generation began, that population increased going over 2 billion to 2.3 billion. What is amazing, it only took another 60 years to triple to 6.5 billion in 2006. By the end of the baby boom generation world population will explode to over 9 billion in 2050. It took 10,000 generations for the human population to reach 2 billion and now it is going to rocket to 9 billion over 1 generation."
Back in the late 1990s I wrote a small report on China and again in 2000 on how China industrialization would create huge demand on commodities and create the largest commodity bull market ever. I was years ahead of most everyone else with this prediction that we now know as fact. Following is a couple excerpts on how that would effect grain prices
"Grains are the most basic food source and comprise most of our daily diets. Grain is used in all our cereals, pasta and breads. Flour is used in all baked goods, pies cakes, doughnuts etc. Grain is used as feed for livestock our beef, pork ,poultry and dairy such as milk, eggs, cheese, yogurt, butter and ice cream. As the Chinese income increases the first thing this income will go towards is better food as food is one of man's great desires and is a necessity. China's government has stated that it would like to increase the yearly egg consumption per Chinese from 100 a year in 1993 to 200 a year in 2000. To do this they will need more chickens. How many? A U.S. farmer after many years of research and experimentation can get an average of 254 eggs per chicken per year. If we assume the Chinese farmer can obtain 200 eggs per chicken a year, the Chinese will need 1.2 billion chickens. 1.2 billion chickens will consume the entire Australian grain harvest each year."
"Lets say after a hard week of work at the factory each adult Chinese will reward themselves on average with one beer per week. This will require 370 tons of grain. If they average 2 beers a week, this will consume the entire Norwegian harvest each year. Now if they want it cold, well that is another story, because then they are going to need a fridge and other appliances."
Wheat chart http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/CW/W

We can see that wheat prices have seen quite a powerful rally and have now corrected and could consolidate for a while. Although prices have more than doubled in the past year. I expect this is just the beginning of a long term bull market.
US wheat inventories, for example, are now at the lowest level since 1947/48 when the US population was only half the size it is today.
North America has experienced great weather for the last 18 consecutive years, which, combined with other improvements in agriculture, has resulted in abundant crops. According to Don Cox, you have to go back 800 years to find a period of such favorable weather for so long a time.
Yet food stocks in corn, wheat, rice, etc. are dangerously low. We are just one bad weather season from a potential worldwide food disaster. And Dennis Gartman has been pointing out almost daily how far behind US farmers are in getting their corn crops planted, due to bad weather:
Fertilizer is going to become even more important and
Potash, or potassium chloride, strengthens plants and increases water retention. Using the fertilizer improves the crop yields, increases resistance to disease and generally makes the end product more transportable. It is a key part of any large-scale agricultural business, and therefore increased demand for foodstuffs translates into increased demand for potash.
Potash Industry Overview
Fertilizers serve a fundamental role in global agriculture by providing vital nutrients that help sustain both the yield and the quality of crops. The three primary nutrients required for plant growth are nitrogen, phosphate and potassium (potash), and there are no known substitutes for these nutrients. A proper balance of each of the three nutrients is necessary to maximize their effectiveness. Potash helps regulate plants’ physiological functions and improves plant durability, providing crops with protection from drought, disease, parasites and cold weather. Unlike nitrogen and phosphate, potash does not require additional chemical conversion to be used as a plant nutrient.
Fertecon Limited, a fertilizer industry consultant, expects global potash consumption to grow 3.5% annually from 2007 to 2011. This growth is driven primarily by strong global demand for agricultural commodities, which in turn is driven by the demand for food and alternative energy sources. As populations grow, more food is required from decreasing arable land per capita, which requires higher crop yields and, therefore, more plant nutrients. As incomes grow in the developing world, people consume more animal protein, which requires large amounts of grain for feed. In addition, high oil prices and associated energy concerns have recently placed a renewed emphasis on ethanol and bio-diesel production, which currently rely on agricultural products as feedstocks.
Potash is mined either from conventional underground mines or, less frequently, from surface or sub-surface brines. According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association, or IFA, six countries accounted for approximately 87% of the world’s aggregate potash production in 2007. During this time period, the top seven potash producers controlled approximately 83% of world production. Five of the top ten producers are further concentrated into two marketing groups, which together controlled approximately 57% of global potash production in 2007.
Virtually all of the world’s potash is currently extracted from twenty commercial deposits, and the most recently constructed operating mine in the world was opened in 1987. Barriers to adding new potash production are significant because economically recoverable potash deposits are scarce, deep in the earth and geographically concentrated. A further challenge is that the majority of unexploited mineralized deposits of potash existing outside the Canadian province of Saskatchewan are located in remote and/or politically unstable regions such as the Congo, Thailand and Argentina.
In recent years, consistent growth in global demand coupled with limited increases in global supply have led to significant increases in producer operating rates for potash. The global potash industry has operated at or near the highest achievable production rates during 2007 and 2008 to date. As a result of increasing demand and tight supply, potash prices have increased rapidly. Potash prices have gone from around $100 (U.S.) a tonne four years ago to more than $600 (U.S.).
Potash is a critical fertilizer, is necessary and widely used to grow corn, wheat, soybeans, potatoes, hay and numerous other crops. The United States currently imports almost 85% of its potash needs.
The most well known potash play is Potash Corp. Saskatchewan NY/TSX:POT the world's largest fertilizer enterprise, producing the three primary plant nutrients: potash, nitrogen and phosphate. Among these, potash – the primary focus – delivers the highest-quality earnings. The stock has run from $60 to over $200 in the past year.
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=POT&table=LIST
Another well know fertilizer company is Agrium Inc., TSX:AGU with 158M shares out and the stock has gone from $40 to $90 in the past year. AGU is a major Retail supplier of agricultural products and services in North and South America, a leading global Wholesale producer and marketer of all three major agricultural nutrients.
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=AGU&table=LIST
Mosiac NY:MOS is the world's leading producer of potash and phosphate crop nutrients and was formed by merger between Cargill Crop Nutrition and IMC Global. The company has facilities around the world and revenue exceeded $5.8 billion last year. In the past year the stock has gone from US$30 to $140.
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=MOS&table=LIST
Developing a Potash mine is a huge and expensive undertaking, witness: Legend International Holdings, Inc(OTCBB:LGDI) with approx. 177M shares out Legend has historically defined phosphate deposits of 1,463 million tonnes at 16% P2O5 on its Queensland land holdings. British Sulphur has completed the preliminary scoping study that defined a $826 million capital cost to build the mine. The stock has moved from $1.00 to as high as $5.00.
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=LGDI&table=LIST
It is easy to see that there is not going to be any new potash mines for years to come, resulting in tight supplies and high prices
Intrepid Potash, Inc. NY:IPI did IPO a few weeks ago at $32 and went to $51 on the first day of trading on 42 million shares. IPI has become the largest producer of potash (potassium chloride) in the United States. In addition, it produces three valuable byproducts: Solar Salt, Magnesium Chloride brine and Sulfate of Potash Magnesia. 76 million shares outstanding.
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=IPI&table=LIST
Western Potash TSXV:WPX is another new IPO in the past week that was done at $1.10 and the stock has moved up some to $1.45. Western Potash was formed when the opportunity to acquire key prospective ground adjacent to known Potash deposits in the province of Manitoba, Canada, presented itself. In July 2007 a private consortium obtained the potash rights on 542 square kilometers, adjacent to BHP Billiton’s Lease and Agrium’s Exploration permits, within 13km of Saskatchewan Potash corps’s Rocanville Potash mine. This one is worth looking at, but for an exploration play it is already valued at $130 million
http://westernpotash.com/ 90.3M shares outstanding
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=WPX&table=LIST
There is one junior potash play that has been around for a while. It changed it's name to Potash One in December 2007 to reflect their primary business. It trades on the TSXV:KCL and has moved from about $1.00 a share to as high as $5.00. It is recently priced around $3.60 and with 40.5M shares outstanding is valued around $146 million. KCL has a large mining block in south-central Saskatchewan, the region known for significant potash deposits. The Findlater Potash project has an Indicated Mineral Resource of 36.8 million tonnes of K2O and is located is immediately adjacent to the north from the Mosaic Belle Plaine potash solution mine.
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=KCL&table=LIST
For a junior, Saskatchewan is a great place to be
There is a lot of interest in potash deposits within the Elk Point Basin sequence of Saskatchewan. Potash has been mined in the province since 1959 and, presently, there are 10 operating mines, 8 of which are underground extraction mines, 1 which is a flooded underground mine (PCS Patience Lake), but presently operating as a solution mine, and 1 solution mine located at Belle Plaine Saskatchewan. It is estimated that there are some 8 billion short tons of recoverable KCl reserves (5 billion short tons K2O equivalent) using conventional (underground techniques, but some 110 billion short tons of recoverable KCl reserves (65 billion short tons) solution mining techniques. Numerous permits for ground that industry considers as prospective for further potash extraction have been taken since 2005; however, the majority of these lands are along the “Conventional Mining Belt,” the trend where the beds are extractable using underground mining techniques.
The trend of lands amenable to solution mining are located to the south of the “Conventional Mining Belt” further into what is termed the “Williston Basin” of Saskatchewan and the northern plains states of the United States.
The potash deposit itself consists of generally flat-lying sedimentary deposits of interbedded halite, sylvite, carnallite, clay, and minor anhydrite and dolomite beds that can be mapped from central Alberta through to Manitoba, North Dakota, and Montana.
Potash North (Timer Exploration) TSXV:TES
Recent Price C$0.40 52 week trading range $0.12 to $0.45
Shares outstanding: 13 million approximately
48 million assuming financing and 2 for 1 split
This is the new Potash play I have been waiting for. The stock is still halted, but this will give you a heads up and you can watch for it to resume trading.
There has also been a private placement announced. You can contact your broker about that, but I expect it will be difficult to buy with high demand.
The info below is from a news release that explains the deal and properties which came through Potash One TSXV:KCL
I did cut some of the details out of the press release to shorten it down
2008-05-12 15:45 ET - News Release
Mr. David Baker reports
TIMER TO ACQUIRE SASKATCHEWAN POTASH PERMIT APPLICATIONS AND COMPLETE PRIVATE PLACEMENT
Timer Explorations Inc. has signed a memorandum of agreement with Peninsula Merchant Syndications Corp. to purchase indirectly all of Peninsula's right, title and interest in and to two potash exploration permit applications known as KP 416 and KP 417, located in Saskatchewan, for $1.95-million in cash, a $1.75-million unsecured convertible debenture and the assumption of Peninsula's obligations to pay Potash One Inc. approximately $2.6-million in cash, all as more particularly described below. Concurrently with the completion of the acquisition of the applications, Peninsula has agreed to arrange a private placement of units of Timer for gross proceeds of up to $8.4-million on the terms described below, and Timer has agreed to appoint new directors and officers.
Timer is acquiring the applications by acquiring a wholly owned subsidiary of Peninsula (ApplicationCo) that holds the rights to acquire the applications from Potash One under the terms of a purchase and sale agreement between the two companies.
Peninsula is private merchant bank controlled by Sam Magid, a former founding partner of Salman Partners, and is at arm's length to Timer. Potash One is a publicly listed potash exploration company, also at arm's length to Timer and to Peninsula.
The permit applications
The two applications are contiguous and cover a combined area of 187,360 acres with the closest parts of the areas subject to the applications located approximately 35 kilometres northeast of the town of Esterhazy, and approximately 20 kilometres northeast of the operating Esterhazy K1 and K2 underground potash mines owned by Mosaic Potash Esterhazy. The southernmost boundary of the application is located about 45 kilometres from Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan's Rocanville mine.
The KP 416 and KP 417 applications are in close proximity to existing rail, road and electricity grids, which are expected to facilitate any future development.
The database of historic drilling maintained by the Saskatchewan government includes two historic drill holes completed in 1962 and 1963 on the KP 416 permit application area that encountered significant potash intersections. The Canberra Langenburg drill hole 16-29-22-30 W1M intersected the top of the Prairie Evaporite formation at 776.5 metres drilled depth. Assay results taken from core cut in the Esterhazy member show 3.3 metres from 791.2 metres to 794.5 metres at a weighted average grade of 21.5 per cent K20 (34.1 per cent KCl), 9.7 per cent carnallite and 0.9 per cent water insolubles. Approximately nine kilometres to the west, the Canberra Langenburg drill hole 13-34-22-31 W1M intersected the top of the Prairie Evaporite formation at 832.6 metres drilled depth. Assay results taken from core cut in the Esterhazy member show 3.6 metres from 837.6 metres to 841.2 metres at a weighted average grade of 21.6 per cent K20 (34.1 per cent KCl), 11.8 per cent carnallite and 0.7 per cent water insolubles.
This historical drill data are reported for information purposes only. This drilling information was not collected under current National Instrument 43-101 reporting standards. This drilling information has not been verified by Timer and therefore should be considered unreliable until further work confirms such results. Currently there is no National Instrument 43-101-compliant report on the areas subject to the applications, nor are there measured, indicated or inferred resources. Investors are cautioned that even if the potash-rich horizon in the historic drill data is confirmed, it does not guarantee economic quantities of potash are present.
North Rim Exploration Ltd., of Saskatoon, has been commissioned to complete a technical report compliant with National Instrument 43-101 on the KP 416 and KP 417 permit application areas.
The applications have been filed with the Saskatchewan Mines Branch, but the permits relating to such applications have not been granted, and there is no certainty that the permits will be issued in the form applied for or at all, and if granted, may be in form and size significantly different from that requested.
The technical content in this news release has been read and approved by Stephen P. Halabura PGeo, a consultant to Potash One and principal geologist and owner of North Rim Exploration Ltd., a professional geologist licensed in Saskatchewan and a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101. Mr. Halabura is independent of Timer and Peninsula but is not independent of Potash One, as he is a shareholder of that company.
Name change and share split
Under the agreement with Peninsula, Timer has agreed to change its name to Potash North Corp. and to complete a subdivision of its shares on a basis of two new for one old prior to the resumption of trading.
All of the unit prices, share prices, unit numbers and share numbers set forth in this news release are stated on a postshare-split basis.
The private placement
To finance the acquisition and the anticipated exploration program on the properties, Timer will undertake a non-brokered private placement of a minimum of 20 million and a maximum of 24 million units at 35 cents per unit, each such unit being the same as a debenture unit (all such figures on a postshare-split basis).
Peninsula will be paid a finder's fee, in cash, equal to 7.5 per cent of the gross proceeds raised from the private placement from investors other than Peninsula and persons not at arm's length to Timer.
Peninsula, Potash One and the other investors in the private placement will agree not to exercise their rights to acquire shares of Timer where such acquisition would result in any such person owning or controlling more than 20 per cent of the outstanding voting shares of Timer, unless such person either:
1. Receives the written consent of the TSX-V, which consent may be conditioned upon obtaining Timer shareholder approval; 2. Makes a formal takeover bid for the shares of Timer pursuant to applicable securities legislation.
New directors, officers and investor relations consultants
Under the Peninsula agreement, Peninsula has the right to nominate one person, and has the right to nominate one person that is acceptable to both Peninsula and Timer, as management nominees for election to the board of directors of Timer until the later of:
1. One year following the closing of the acquisition and the private placement; 2. Such time as Peninsula holds or has the right to acquire less than 5 per cent of the outstanding voting shares of Timer.
Concurrent with the completion of the acquisition and private placement, Timer will appoint Craig A. Angus as president and chief executive officer, and Doris Meyer as chief financial officer and corporate secretary. David Baker will resign as an officer, but will remain on the board. At that time, Brent Peters and J. Earl Terris will resign as directors of Timer, and Timer will appoint the following persons to its board:
1. Terry Eyton (a Peninsula nominee); 2. Paul F. Matysek (a Potash One nominee); 3. Mr. Angus (a nominee that is independent of each of Peninsula and Potash One).
Mr. Eyton, FCA, is the chief financial officer of Peninsula and a partner with Topping, Eyton and Partners, chartered accountants, and is a director and chairman of the audit committee of several publicly listed mineral exploration companies. Ms. Meyer, a member of the Certified General Accountants of British Columbia and Canada, brings to the company her 25 years experience as chief financial officer and corporate secretary of publicly listed mineral exploration companies. Mr. Matysek is an experienced geochemist/geologist with a bachelor of science degree and a master of science degree in geology. Mr. Matysek has held management and director positions with several natural resource exploration and development companies. As a nominee of Potash One, Mr. Matysek's expertise is expected to not only enhance the value of Potash One's investment in the company, but increase value for all shareholders.
Mr. Angus, Mr. Eyton, Mr. Matysek, Mr. Baker and Ms. Meyer will also be granted options to purchase 2.4 million shares of Timer, on a postshare-split basis, such options being exercisable for five years at an exercise price of 35 cents per share.
Financial
The private placement will provide $7.0 to $8.4 million in funds. This will fund the acquisition and exploration
Summary
Potash North (Timer) has a tight share structure, was basically a shell company. They are acquiring two excellent properties with historic drill intercepts of potash. The drill intersects were 9 kilometers apart and hit the same formation that host potash. They are located very close to infrastructure and producing mines.
There is little doubt that they will have lots of potash, I believe it is a matter of drilling it off, proving the economics and selling out the company or building a mine.
The stock will have a strong shareholder base with Potash One owning approx. 13% and Peninsula a private merchant bank controlled by Sam Magid, a former founding partner of Salman Partners, owning up to 20%. Insiders also control a lot of of the previous 13 million share float.
As noted above, all the potash stocks have market caps of over $100 million for juniors and billions for the seniors.
If we assume Potash North starts to trade at $0.50 and with 50 million shares out, that is a market cap of $25 million. To get to a market cap of $100 million we are looking at a $2.00 stock. If Potash North proves up a substantial deposit of Potash, it has potential to achieve a market cap in line with Legend International at over $500 million. That would translate to between $7 and $12 a share depending on dilution and future financings.
Arlene Hanson of Kin Communications Inc. is representing Investor Relations and also represents Potash One, so he has the knowledge of the industry and investor contacts who have an interest in potash. This should be a benefit to the performance of the stock
Contact Arlen at: 604-684-6730 Toll Free: 1-866-684-6730
http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=TES&table=LIST
Timer Exploration Suite 1550, 200 Burrard Street, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6C 3L6 Telephone: (604) 685-3317 CEO David Baker e-mail address: dbaker@dbakercapital.com
No website available yet
(c) Copyright 2008, Struther's Resource Stock Report
All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of this publication has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author's control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Because of the ever-changing nature of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly encourages the reader to communicate directly with the company and/or with their personal investment advisor to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial advisor & is not acting as such in this publication. Struther's Resource Stock Report is not a registered financial advisory. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.
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