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Resource Stock Report - V13 #15.0, - Silver Summit, OK, SNS, SRLM, PZG, FR, INM, PEM Sept., 23, 2007
PO Box 1020 Owen Sound, Ontario, Canada N4K 6H6 resource@bmts.com Yearly subscription $199/year Cdn$ or US$
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The Silver Summit, Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, Sept. 19th-23rd
There is no doubt that Coeur d'Alene in the Silver Valley of Idaho is the ideal place to hold a Silver Summit Conference. The Silver Valley is the richest silver district in the U.S. and among the top in the world with over 1.2 billion ounces of silver produced since 1884 and perhaps another billion ounces awaits in the future. With such a rich silver history and bright future, it is not necessary to speak to anyone of the benefits of silver nor it's potentially rich and bright future, because they already know it and probably better than you or I. However, that will not stop me from letting you in on some of my meager knowledge and experience gained at this year's Silver Summit.
The district is a beautiful recreation area and it's rich silver history is obvious as the word silver still appears in the name of many business's which is on the rise too as the higher price of silver is roaring the valley back to life. Many of the area's 90 historic mines have been bought up by junior mining companies and are being reworked, revitalized and explored. That is happening in many silver districts around the world and is why this year's Silver Summit has reached it's capacity at the current location, the Best Western Hotel. In comparison to most mining conferences it is still small and personal and that was one of the best aspects of the conference. It was easy to find time to speak with as many CEOs and Exploration managers as one pleased. The Summit is very focused (silver), making it the ideal place to seek out investment opportunities in silver, but before I get to some of my favorites at the show, a little about silver's future will set a dramatic scene.
There was numerous speakers talking about the aspects and future prices of silver and gold, but what I found to be one of the most intriguing was a talk by David Bensimon of Australia www.polarpacific.com. Mr. Bensimon used mathematical calculations on how the silver and gold prices moved up and down over calculated time periods. He used charts and data that went back several hundred years and showed how these mathematics corresponded to price movements over time periods. He than got into detail on how these have worked in the past 25 years or so and how they have enabled him to predict price movements and turning points accurately in the past 5 years. It's uncanny accuracy was amazing! So everyone in the room paid close attention when he used this math to predict prices of gold and silver into the future. As I am one who only follows trends and looks for major turning points, I am not that interested in exact prices on certain dates in the future, but some of these figures from Mr. Bensimon will fascinate you as it did myself.
I may not have the exact price and dates he used and I don't think that will matter much. He is predicting gold and silver prices to peak around 2014 and I believe it was about $2,600 for gold and $186 for silver. What was quite interesting is his prediction, the silver price has a steeper rising channel than gold and it will hardly be interrupted on an almost straight path upwards.
His math calculates higher percentage gains for silver and is only predicting one brief consolidation of gains and that will occur in late 2008 or early 2009 with silver prices between $40 and $50 per ounce. Wow!, if true we are going to see an extremely exciting, maybe almost manic period in the next 12 to 18 months for the silver market. You may want to pick up Mr. Bensimon's award winning book, Polar Perspectives which recently won the Gold Medal as the Best Book in the field of Finance/Investment/Economics at the 2007 Independent Publisher Awards in New York.
I have been predicting the current up trend to hit new highs in the near future and even if these are much more modest than Bensimon's, it will still be an exciting time for silver, so lets look at a few of the opportunities I found at the Summit. Some of these I think are good to load up on right now, while others should be watched closely for a few key developments.
My last takeover target in silver was Palmarejo in Mexico and we made some nice quick gains when Coeur d'Alene Mines, 'NY:CDE' announced they would buy them out in early May of this year. It looks to me that the next take over could be Orko Silver, 'TSXV:OK', $1.15. Orko has an aggressive drill program underway at their 100% owned 1,134 hectare La Preciosa gold-silver project in Durango Mexico.
Orko Silver TSXV:OK $1.15 Buy
In March of this year a 43-101 silver equivalent inferred resource of 35.8 million ounces (grading 0.396 g/t Au and 229.9 g/t Ag was outlined with 76 drill holes. This resource is predominately in the La Gloria and Abundancia vein structures and does not include the recently discovered Martha Vein that is wider and richer, nor additional north trending veins or the Transversal Vein. Since then Orko has completed at least 60 more drill holes and an updated resource number is expected within the next week or two. I expect this next resource number could get up closer to the 70 to 90 million ounce range.
As this deposit gains some size, the valuation should rise, but even as is, Orko is quite undervalued compared to it's peers. A group of similar silver stocks have an average in ground value of $6/ounce for measured/indicated resources and Palmerajo was recently bought out for about $5.50/ounce.
OK has plenty of cash in the bank and more so with outstanding warrants that are all in the money. Lets assume all warrants are exercised giving OK about 102 million shares outstanding. The stock at $1.15 has a market cap of only $117.3 million. They have 35.8 million ounces silver in the ground that could be valued at $5 per ounce giving us a value of $179 million or $1.75/share. Assuming a double of resources to 72 million ounces we can come up with a target of $3.50 per share. I expect this deposit could easily grow well over 100 million ounces but it may be taken over before then.
Back to the Silver Valley
Going back to the Silver Valley in Idaho, three different companies are trying to bring three of the biggest silver mines back to life, the Sunshine, Crescent Mine and Bunker Hill. You know about the Crescent Mine as I have been bringing you coverage of SNS Silver 'TSXV:SNS', $1.27 and I hope you bought the stock based on my update before I came to the Silver Summit as it has moved up considerably. I did tour the Crescent Mine and will have a more comprehensive update with photos. For now, let me say that I liked what I seen and I think SNS has a much more simpler plan and an easier path to success than the other two.
That being said, you should pay close attention to Sterling Silver 'OTCBB:SRLM', $3.25 as I think they just have a couple of pieces left in the puzzle to get Sunshine in production and their stock moving higher. They did complete a 43-101 report that came up with total resources of 262.6 million ounces of which 23.4 million ounces are classified as reserves. The Sunshine Mine was the biggest in the Valley, with historic production of over 360 million ounces. Sterling has revitalized much of the upper areas in the mine, the Jewell Shaft to the 3100 level, the 5,700 Sterling Tunnel, the Summit Shaft and double drum hoist. On the weekend, they got the Mill up and running for the first time in 5/6 years. They will need some time to run lower grade test ore through the mill to fine tune and iron out the kinks. They are still targeting end of 2007 for production. They have adequate financing, but I have heard there may be some adjustments needed to their resource report before they get a Toronto stock listing. They got conditional approval in August and getting this listing and off the OTC bulletin is a key thing I am watching for along with results of further test production runs in the Mill. You may want to buy an initial position in the stock now as it may start to move higher on anticipation of these future events.
Azteca Gold TSXV:AZG has an option on the Bunker Hill mine, but needs to raise about $50 million to exercise this option. Then there is the cost of rehabilitating the mine. There is also some environmental hurdles they will have to over come. Bunker Hill is really a lead/zinc mine and for now I think it is best to just wait and watch how they progress.
Back to Mexico Paramound Gold&Silver Amex/TSX: PZG $2.81 Buy
Going back to Mexico, I sat down with Larry Segrestrom of Paramount Gold and Silver TSX/AMEX:PZG $2.81 and went through a 3-D model of the deposit at San Miguel. They have done a lot more surface work utilizing their South American exploration team and using some state of the art equipment like the Pima Meter (identifies minerals in soil/rock) that few if any junior exploration companies have. They have used all this new surface information along with the trenching and drill results to date for this 3-D model. It is not complete yet, but should be around the time of the next resource update, late 2007, early 2008 time frame. However, they have gained a lot of knowledge about the system and what controls the silver and gold mineralization. There has been at least two distinct mineralizing events, one for silver/lead/zinc and another for gold/silver. They may have also identified on how to key the drilling in on the higher grade targets hosting more gold with higher silver.
Drill results have been slow in coming out and this was due to back up at the Labs and it took Paramount longer than expected to increase their land disturbance agreements so they could have more drill pads completed ahead of the drills, since they now have two drills going 24/7. We should now start seeing a more steady flow of drill results, starting this week or next and that along with the senior stock listings, initiation of analyst coverage and more exposure, the stock is going to start moving. The San Miguel system is on surface and very robust. If you compare with Orko above, Paramount identified 38 million ounces with 39 shallow drill holes (Orko 35.8 million ounces with 76 drill holes). Paramount has not drilled down dip yet, where Orko has.
Paramount's 43-10 only considered high grade resources where the average grade worked out to be 246 g/t silver using a 120 g/t cut off. Orko was almost the same, 253.7 average grade but a higher 150 g/t cut off.
I heard some companies bragging at the Summit that they found silver resources for only $0.15/ounce, Paramount has found this much silver thus far at a cost of less than $0.07 cents per ounce of silver.
What I am trying to convey here, it looks like Paramount's San Miguel is a very robust mineralized system, in the top echelon when compared with other companies and apparently, Paramount geologists believe they are not into the best part of it yet. I can hardly wait to see results from these better areas of the system.
First Majestic TSXV:FR $3.72 Buy
In Mexico, I also looked into First Majestic TSXV:FR $3.72. I have followed this company for quite sometime, but what I like now is how they are about to progress their properties, but the stock price is still way down from its $6.20 high and the recent high in July of $5.00. I don't think the market is pricing in the future good news. FR presently owns/operates three silver mines in Mexico; the La Parrilla Silver Mine, the San Martin Silver Mine and the La Encantada Silver Mine. Annual production from these three mines is anticipated to be approximately 4.5 million ounces in 2007.
FR is increasing production rates at all three 100% owned mines by upgrading the mining equipment. They are also aggressively increasing and adding reserves and resources with about 10 drill rigs currently in operation. I expect there is going to be a good steady flow of good strong news and this is not being reflected in the stock price. At $3.72 and 61 million shares out, FR has a market cap of $227 million. FR has about 59 million ounces silver in the proven/probable and measured/indicated categories. The market is only valuing this at $3.84 per ounce. This is on the low side for a producing company and especially when you consider than many exploration companies with resources in lower categories are valued at $5 and $6 per ounce. I see the stock as a good buy now with a target price that could easily reach the $6 to $10 range.
You know from my most recent report on International Northair TSXV:INM $0.32 that this stock is a good buy based on a silver discovery on their the El Reventon Project Durango, Mexico (33.5 metres of 179 g/t silver, 22.8 metres of 94.7 g/t silver and 56.4 metres of 84.5 g/t silver). I also came across another similar priced story, Premium Exploration TSXV:PEM $0.28 with just 29 million shares out. PEM released results last week from a 1st phase 2,000-metre drill program at their Nueva Galicia silver-gold project in Nayarit, Mexico. Hole NG07-001 and NG07-002 encountered high-grade silver and gold mineralization with estimated true widths of 2.6 metres at 7.84 g/t Au and 814 g/t Ag (8.53 feet at 0.229 ounce per ton gold and 23.77 opt silver), and (NG07-002) four metres at 2.32 g/t gold and 226 g/t silver. The two other holes missed the target.
They drilled the Buenos Aires structure and it has been traced on surface for over 800 metres to the south and 650 metres to the north, where it is covered by postmineralization basalt near the Lluvia de Oro workings. PEM is going to have to do some more work and drilling after the rainy season subsides, anticipated to be in October. Drilling will continue along the Buenos Aires structure to the north, as well as on parallel mineralized structures to the west of Buenos Aires. It looks like they could have a discovery and since the stock is trading at a beaten down price, off from its recent high at $0.49 it is a good buy here. There appears to be major support around the $0.25 price area so downside risk looks small.
I may have some coverage in the future on other companies I met with at the Summit, but for now we have a good handful of silver stocks to buy
(c) Copyright 2007, Struther's Resource Stock Report
All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of this publication has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author's control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Because of the ever-changing nature of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly encourages the reader to communicate directly with the company and/or with their personal investment advisor to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial advisor & is not acting as such in this publication. Struther's Resource Stock Report is not a registered financial advisory. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.
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